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AI-Driven Digital Twin for Integrated WEFE Nexus Management

TOPICS

KEYWORDS

Artificial Intelligence, Agent-Based Modeling (ABM), Socio-Economic Digital Twin, Food System Transformation, WEFE Nexus, Policy Simulation, Behavioral Modeling, Climate Change Adaptation, Sustainable Farming Systems, Water Management, Sustainable Diets, Multi-Objective Optimization, Agricultural Economics, Konya Basin, Turkey

DESCRIPTION

We specialize in applying advanced AI and socio-economic modeling to provide a unified framework that addresses the interconnected challenges across the WAFERS project’s core thematic areas. Our proposal is to develop and lead a novel Socio-Economic Digital Twin, a virtual laboratory designed to simulate and optimize pathways for a resilient Mediterranean future. Our methodology directly integrates and provides solutions for the following topics: For Topic 1.1.1 (Water Management): Our Digital Twin’s hydrological layer models the impact of upscaling Nature-Based Solutions. We can simulate how interventions like managed aquifer recharge affect water availability across a basin. For Topic 1.2.1 (Farming Systems): The framework is designed to optimize sustainable farming systems, especially in sensitive landscapes like wetlands. Our AI-driven engine identifies crop portfolios and practices that enhance both conservation and economic coexistence. For Topic 1.3.1 (Food Systems): The entire framework culminates in transforming Mediterranean food systems. By modeling the complete value chain, we provide the tools to test policies aimed at empowering consumers and promoting sustainable diets. Our core contribution is to model the system from climate impacts to consumer plates by integrating two powerful components: An Integrated Biophysical Model: Using established models (like SWAT+ and AquaCrop) and AI, we build the physical foundation of the Digital Twin. This allows us to forecast the real-world impact of future climate scenarios and interventions on water resources and agricultural viability. An Agent-Based Model (ABM) of Human Behavior: This is the “socio-economic brain” of our Digital Twin. We create a dynamic simulation populated with intelligent agents representing key actors: Farmer Agents: Modeled with diverse behaviors, they make decisions on crop selection (including shifting to water-efficient, underutilized crops) based on simulated water availability, costs, and policy incentives derived from Topics 1.1.1 and 1.2.1. Consumer Agents: Their behavior responds to changes in food availability and targeted policies, allowing us to model the potential for empowering sustainable diets as envisioned in Topic 1.3.1. What this “Virtual Laboratory” enables for the consortium: Test and Optimize Policies Across All Topics: It acts as a risk-free “policy sandbox” to evaluate the cross-cutting effects of different strategies—from water management incentives to consumer awareness campaigns—on farmer income, conservation, and nutritional outcomes. Provide a Ready-to-Use Validation Site: We offer Türkiye’s Konya Closed Basin as a unique, data-rich testbed. Leveraging extensive historical data on how farmers have already adapted to severe water stress, we can build and validate highly realistic behavioral models, providing an invaluable and cost-effective asset to the consortium. We seek to join as the lead partner providing the integrated modeling framework that connects water solutions, farming systems, and consumer behavior, providing the critical tools to navigate the complexities of a sustainable and resilient Mediterranean food system.

REMARKS

Our contribution is based on an established and validated modeling framework, allowing us to serve as the central modeling engine for the consortium. We provide the integrative methodology that connects the outputs of water management (Topic 1.1.1) and farming systems (Topic 1.2.1) into a comprehensive food system transformation model (Topic 1.3.1). By leveraging our existing data and models for the Konya Basin testbed, we operate as a highly cost-effective “lean expert partner.” In essence, we don’t just add a component; we provide the integrated vision that amplifies the impact and coherence of the entire project.

ORGANIZATION

Ankara University Artificial Intelligence and Data Engineering Department

TYPE OF ORGANIZATION

COUNTRY

Turkey

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